The kerogen formation that geologist Bartov first confirmed in 2009 extends beyond Israel. It runs across the few kilometers east to the Palestinian West Bank — Vinegar flourished a sample from there, darker than the chalky Israeli sample — and into Jordan, where the known kerogen formation is as large as all of Israel itself. Shell is working with King Abdullah II to develop it, in a country that has almost no mineral resources. Egypt has potential as well.

“The truth is, Israel is sitting on the best,” says Vinegar. Its oil could well lock in the energy independence that’s promised by natural gas — an independence that’s first of all economic: every dollar’s worth of oil or gas Israel produces is a dollar of hard currency available for other uses. But in Israel’s case, energy independence also involves military security. When the country fights wars, as it has every few years, insurance companies bar oil tankers from venturing into its ports. As a practical matter, that limits a war to the length of time it takes Israel to burn through petroleum it has stored.

But Vinegar sees a potential beyond hard currency, or even the brand of security provided by military assets. He envisions Israel, with its existing complex refineries, excellent infrastructure and seaports as a natural nexus for “an integrated energy zone” that spans borders and unites countries no longer quite at war, but not terribly close, either.