Essentially the S.C. First is a moderate Republican-majority district, with strong concentrations of northern migrants, many of them well-to-do retirees in both the Charleston area and farther south to Hilton Head and its environs in Beaufort County near Savannah, Ga. Total voter registration is 20 percent African-American, a solid Democratic bloc. Also, the total registration is 55 percent female, a big plus for Colbert Busch, whose personal story is one that appeals and who has made equal pay for women a central point in her campaign.
A male acquaintance with strong Republican credentials confided to me after the first primary (Colbert Busch received 96 percent of the vote against a perennial opposing candidate in the Democratic primary) that he had voted for Sanford, but his wife voted for Colbert Busch. Even before all the campaign turmoil, a Public Policy Polling survey showed Busch two points ahead of Sanford, but within the margin of error.
South Carolina’s solid-red national image is somewhat misleading. A majority in Charleston County (not all of which is in the First District) voted for President Obama both in 2008 and 2012. He received 45 percent of the two-party statewide vote in 2012 without stepping foot, or his campaign spending a dime, in the state. In 2008 an openly lesbian Democratic candidate received 48 percent of the First District vote. Her low-profile campaign manager, Bill Romjue, has returned to the state to run Colbert Busch’s race this year.
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