How likely is it that Obama can flip the House in 2014?

How likely is Mr. Obama to “flip” the House in the 2014 midterm elections by taking the 17 Republican seats needed for a Democratic majority? Not likely at all. Since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats in midterm elections. The president’s party has gained seats in only three midterms (1934, 1998 and 2002).

Second-term midterms like next year’s are even worse for the president’s party, with an average loss of 32 House seats. The only second-term midterm where the president’s party gained was 1998, with Democrats picking up five House seats. That was made possible when Republicans grossly overplayed the impeachment of President Bill Clinton.

To flip the House, Democrats will first focus on the 16 Republican congressmen whose districts were carried by Mr. Obama. But in 11 of these districts, Mr. Obama received less than 52%; and in four, less than 50%.

Nor is Mr. Obama likely to be much more popular by Election Day 2014. His Gallup job-approval rating this week was 49%; Mr. Clinton’s was 59% at this point in 1997 and 63% by the 1998 midterms. FDR’s was 52% before his second midterms in 1938 when Democrats lost 71 seats.