The Kaesong complex is the last remaining major project of inter-Korean cooperation and a crucial test of whether North Korea was willing to sacrifice a lucrative source of hard current to push its political and military priorities.

“We believe this is a calculated move by the North,” Mr. Kim said during a meeting of security-related officials on Sunday. The North, he said, “may launch a provocation, such as missile launch,” around Wednesday, he said…

“North Korea has been engaged in a so-called headline strategy,” Mr. Kim, the national security director, said, referring to an almost daily drumbeat of North Korean threats that has made newspaper headlines since early March…

South Korea “has no intention of attempting premature dialogue just because of a crisis,” Mr. Kim said, urging the North to ease tensions so dialogue can start.