Democratic sources tell TIME that the tough background check bill that emerged from the Judiciary Committee March 12, doesn’t appear to have the votes to overcome a filibuster when it comes to the Senate floor in the next week or two, let alone get through the Republican controlled House. The push by Obama and his allies, including a $12 million ad buy by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, appears only to have highlighted the fact that any bill that includes paper records for all private sales can’t pass Congress.

Perhaps the greatest sign that the push for tougher legislation has failed is that Democrats are quietly preparing a fall back position. Behind the scenes staffers for Republican Senator Tom Coburn and Democrat Charles Schumer are drafting a substitute background check bill that would be softer, but could get broad Republican support. “Lines of communication remain open and both sides are working in good faith to come to an agreement,” says one source close to the deal.

The substitute bill is not yet done—the sticking point remains whether there will be a requirement for paper records of background checks on private sales at gun shows or elsewhere. Coburn says Republicans won’t accept any expansion of record keeping to private sales, even though paper records are required for guns sold by licensed dealers.