For both issues, the stakes may be higher for Christie than for any of the other top 2016 contenders. While Christie appeals to party insiders for his ability to govern as a pro-life, fiscal conservative in a liberal state, party regulars in early primary states view anyone from “Blue Jersey” with suspicion. It’s the Nixon-to-China syndrome: Republicans such as Portman or Murkowski cannot check every conservative box and still be forgiven; Christie accepts help from FEMA after a hurricane batters the Jersey coast, and he is barred from the Conservative Political Action Committee. Democrats have been hopeful that movement on this front will persuade him, but in fact, the more Republicans flip on issues around gays and guns, the better it becomes for Christie to hold out, because he begins to look more conservative by comparison.

But if Christie is pushed by CPAC and social conservatives on one side, on the other are a number of his most prominent supporters. Some of those who promised to bankroll a possible 2012 presidential campaign are also major supporters of marriage equality, including hedge-fund magnates Paul Singer, Clifford Asness, and Daniel Loeb, all of whom gave money to a similar legislative effort across the river in New York state.

“We hope he will not so much relent as wake up to the new political reality,” said Troy Stevenson, the executive director of Garden State Equality. “If the governor surely does have national ambitions, he will see this as something that can’t hurt him going into 2016.”…

“Middle America is always suspect of the guys from the East Coast in these matters,” said Craig Robinson, who runs the influential Iowa Republican blog. “What is your understanding and foundation on issues like this? Plenty of Iowa Republicans are already grumbling at him. If he were to go another step further and sign into law the gun thing, or the marriage thing, I think it would almost disqualify him as a national candidate.”