Poll: The future of the Hispanic vote may be just like the present

Hispanic adults more closely resemble non-Hispanic blacks rather than non-Hispanic whites in terms of having a cohesive political identity that remains intact across all age groups. While Hispanics do not identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party to the same degree that blacks do, there are few generational differences among Hispanics and among blacks. Democratic identification significantly outweighs Republican identification across all three age groups…

The key issue looking ahead is the future political identification of the large group of young Hispanics as they age. If the political preferences of their middle-aged and older counterparts are any guide, it appears that young Hispanic adults will remain lopsidedly Democratic throughout their lives. There is also no generational evidence at this point suggesting that they will become more Republican. Indeed, given the stability of political preferences across the three adult age groups, it is reasonable to project that new Hispanic adults — those who turn 18 in the coming years — will continue the Democratic Party’s advantage among this group.

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