The unlikely swing state

Also affecting the presidential race is a contentious U.S. Senate race in which former governor Tommy Thompson, a lock for Wisconsin’s Mount Rushmore of historic political figures, is running against Representative Tammy Baldwin, an extreme liberal from Madison. The race, believed to be extremely tight, has gotten ugly, with Thompson running ads criticizing Baldwin for voting against a resolution honoring the victims of 9/11. Baldwin has shot back, noting Thompson owned stock in companies that partnered with Iran to mine uranium in Africa. National ad-watching groups have called the Thompson–Baldwin race the most negative in the nation.

It is unclear whether Thompson is buttressing Romney’s numbers, or vice versa. But when I sat down with Thompson three weeks ago, he urged Romney to spend more time and money in the state, likely recognizing the help a rising tide could give his own campaign. In most polls, Thompson is running a couple of points ahead of Romney; a strong Romney vote will almost certainly send Thompson to the Senate.

Very few early presidential-election models had Wisconsin in play, but its ten electoral votes have become an important prize. If Romney wins Wisconsin, he can even lose Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, provided he wins Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada.