A GOP insider with access to strategy discussions and internal polling data said Republican moves to supposedly expand Romney’s map are simply attempts to rattle the opposition and force the president’s team to spend money where it otherwise wouldn’t. Of the states they are working to make competitive, Pennsylvania is the closest, but four years ago John McCain lost there “by 600,000 votes,” this strategist said. Campaign operatives think it will be closer this time, but they are under no illusions and concede that the Keystone State is extremely unlikely to flip…

Last week, sources said, some Republican internal surveys there showed Romney winning by about four percentage points, while others showed him ahead by two or three. But by early this week, he was leading only by a point, according to several state Republicans with access to internal data.

Of course, what makes the race so confounding for even the closest observers is that both campaigns believe they are winning Ohio based on the polls they have conducted. The Obama camp consistently sees internal polls that track more closely with public polling and that show the president ahead by two to four points.