The October surprise and the November election

Here are some possible “surprises”:

First, the unemployment rate. When the fall in the unemployment rate to 7.8 percent–below that resonant 8 percent threshold–was announced on October 5, many were incredulous that the weak US economy could produce such a robust jobs report. Yet those who spoke out on the number were clobbered by the MSM; Jack Welch, the legendary former CEO of General Electric, tweeted out his suspicion, and was promptly separated from his guest-writing gigs at Fortune magazine and Reuters. Indeed, the MSM were absolutely unanimous in their assurance that there was no way that the Obamans could have cooked the number, how professional was the Bureau of Labor Statistics, yada yada–even as reports of errors in that supposedly foolproof data-gathering process have piled up. So in their zealous defense of the bureaucracy, methinks that maybe the MSM doth protest too much.

Meanwhile, the next unemployment number comes out on November 2, just four days before the election. So what new monstrosity of a number will the administration reveal?

Second, Hurricane Sandy. If there’s ever a need for a reminder to us all that elections are unpredictable, this storm provides that reminder. Note to Obama: You are better off staying in the White House to manage the crisis; although, of course, in light of the way he has handled the Benghazi attacks, there’s not much reason to think that Obama will, in fact, stay near the White House to actually do his job.

Third, the Obamans’ incredibly sophisticated ground game, which will help squeeze out perhaps an extra point through better get-out-the-vote. Or is it, in fact, a better ground game? Or could Romney’s surge in fervor give him the edge?

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