GOP turnout testing Obama's aggressive organizational capabilities

Of course, just a small fraction of voters have turned in their ballots so far, and it’s impossible to know for whom they were cast, but the campaigns are monitoring data about which party those voters registered with and then making assumptions accordingly. In Florida, about 12,300 Republicans have voted so far, compared with about 10,300 Democrats.

As of this past weekend, Republicans were outpacing Democrats in requests for absentee ballots in Colorado, 656,813 to 627,064 — an edge of roughly 30,000.

In North Carolina, Republicans were far ahead as of Saturday, requesting 65,683 ballots to just 33,927 for Democrats. And in Nevada, both parties notched around 20,000 requests apiece with an edge of 679 for Democrats.

There are exceptions to the general trend, of course: In Iowa, Democrats have raced past Republicans, increasing their advantage in absentee ballot requests from what it was in 2008. Whereas 43,543 more Democrats than Republicans requested ballots in the Hawkeye State by this point in 2008, 67,475 more Democrats have done so this cycle.

But when all of the swing states are taken together, as Republican operatives see it, they are not being outmatched by the incumbent’s aggressive operation.