Scott Rasmussen: Election day turnout will probably be between D+2 and D+4

For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this year’s presidential race. “For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”

The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage out there for Democrats. That’s what it’s been for nearly a generation; that’s probably what will happen on November 6.

Given that, and factoring in independents, Rasmussen’s national surveys show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a small margin. The president has a two-point advantage in the latest Rasmussen national tracking poll, and comparably small margins in the super-swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. “I think the race is tilting, just barely, in Obama’s favor, with the potential to shift between now and Election Day,” he says.