Ignore the doomsayers: Romney's still very much in this

This feels eerily similar to September 2000. I remember it well from the first campaign for George W. Bush. As the incumbents, the Democrats’ convention came second, which I think is always an advantage as you get to step on the other team’s bounce—especially back then, when the conventions were separated only by days. Al Gore powered to a lead by a few points, in part because he had what was perceived as a “real” moment at the convention when he planted a prolonged lip lock on Tipper in the national klieg lights.

Add in a few unfortunate events of our own making (anyone remember the “Rats” ad?) and suddenly we found ourselves in what we referred to as “Black September.”

But they call it a convention “bounce” for a reason. Because it goes up, THEN down.

Thanks in large part to his performance in the debates, Bush turned things around in 2000. And the Democrats that year did not have one of the worst economies in history to defend or deal with. Just the opposite. Comparatively speaking, people were pretty happy with the general direction of the economy.

So before people get too lathered up about polls like the one showing weak support for Romney in Southern states, I say “Cool down.”