The real question of the election: Has Obama lost control of events?

The verdict on Obama is more ambiguous because the financial crisis and the onset of the recession preceded his election. If the question were “are you better off since the recession’s start in late 2007,” the answer would be unequivocal. Pew Research Center polling found that 46 percent of Americans say they’re worse off since late 2007 and only 31 percent say they’re better off; the rest see no change. The rap against Obama is that he hasn’t repaired the damage fast enough.

This is a serious political vulnerability that’s reflected in consumer confidence polls. As the recession worsened, the Conference Board’s survey hit the lowest levels since it began in 1967. The big rebound since then still leaves the survey at recession levels, says the Conference Board’s Lynn Franco. The index now registers 60, when a more normal reading for a strong economy would easily exceed 100. Moreover, she says, “pessimists [about future income gains] outnumber the optimists. We’ve never seen that before. It’s striking.”

The pessimism and frustration define the debate. It’s less about whether you’re better off now than four years ago and more about whether you believe things will get better. Put differently: Do Americans believe Obama has lost control of events, justifying a change at the top?