In the days of Franklin Roosevelt, the white working class, increasing numbers of them union members, became one of the core groups of the Democratic Party. This group—the people defined by exit polls as noncollege whites—has been declining as a percentage of the electorate, but in the process it has become an important part of the Republican core.
Noncollege whites provided exactly half the votes cast for John McCain. Barack Obama carried this group in only 15 states with 124 electoral votes, and noncollege whites were more Republican than college whites in all but eight states, including some with union traditions (Michigan, Indiana, Illinois) and others where both groups are overwhelmingly Republican (Texas, Oklahoma, Utah)…
Yet Republicans assembling sooner or later in storm-tossed Tampa should keep in mind that in 2008, as in 1944, their party was in the minority and that they need to add votes from other groups to win. White noncollege voters and white evangelical Christians were only 42% and 37%, respectively, of the winning Republican coalition in the 2010 congressional elections.
Recent polling suggests that affluent suburbanite Mitt Romney is making gains among groups where the party has been losing votes, and if he is elected he will need to govern in a way that holds this larger party together. But that is the challenge the Republican Party has always faced, and over its 158 years it has won more presidential elections than it has lost.
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