The GOP’s original plan to regain Senate control hinged on picking up seats in Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska and Missouri, states Mitt Romney is expected to win and where the Democratic Senate candidates are trailing in the polls. Without Missouri, party strategists say, there will be an enhanced focus on, and heavier investments in, open-seat races in Wisconsin and New Mexico, as well as Democrat Bill Nelson’s seat in Florida.
A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday shows the popular Thompson, who served four terms as governor, leading Rep. Tammy Baldwin by nine points. Republicans believe native son Paul Ryan’s presence on the presidential ticket will give the Senate candidate a further boost.
Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich leads former Rep. Heather Wilson in New Mexico by 7.7 points, according to the RealClearPolitics Average. President Obama faces favorable odds there, which could be an additional boon to Heinrich. But Wilson is running a strong campaign, and Republicans invested money on her behalf early in the contest. They figure Wilson could run ahead of Romney in the state, and that having a woman on the ticket might narrow the gender gap in this race.
In Florida, Nelson is running 6.0 percentage points ahead of Rep. Connie Mack in a state that is highly competitive on the presidential level.
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