Nobody should trivialize the danger posed by a nuclear Iran or underestimate Israel’s concerns about that possibility. Even if we had divine assurance that Iran wouldn’t use nukes against Israel, an Iranian bomb would embolden Tehran’s regional aspirations, erode American deterrence, trigger an arms race in the region, and give a repressive power an additional hedge on its own security.
At the same time, few buy the case for an immediate strike, either. Indeed, let’s be clear about something: Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon. As far as we know, it hasn’t tested one, produced enough fissile material for a sustainable program, or mastered the weaponization of a nuclear warhead — yet. Right now, in August 2012, there’s only one country that believes it’s imperative to strike Iran: Israel. And even that is somewhat misleading, because there’s no consensus within the Israeli public, political elite, or security establishment about the need to attack. According to one recent poll, 60 percent of Israelis were against an Israeli strike. …
But for the Israelis, the advantages of letting Washington take the lead are considerable. They would avoid a crisis in their relationship with the United States as well as the international censure that would accompany a unilateral strike. The damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities would also be much greater.
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