Thus, in the event of an Israeli attack, Iran’s response would be finely calibrated towards achieving three objectives:
• First, punishing Israel for its attack.
• Second, deterring further Israeli strikes and so creating space for a reconstituted Iranian nuclear programme.
• Finally, weakening US/international support for Israel so as to increase Israeli isolation and vulnerability.
Hezbollah, Hamas and other non-state allies would play a major role in effecting Iranian retaliation. Iran may also attempt to launch a number of its new Sajjil-2 medium-range missiles against Israel. Again, however, using these missiles would risk major retaliation if many Israeli citizens were killed.
As a preference, Iran would probably perceive that utilising Hamas and Hezbollah would allow retaliation without forcing Netanyahu into a massive counter-response. Crucially, I believe Iran regards that balancing its response would enable it to buy time for a reconstituted, hardened nuclear programme.
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