This budget would have devastating consequences. Increasing non-Social Security and health spending only at the rate of inflation would gradually shrink most other federal programs. (From 2011 to 2030, these other programs would decline by more than half, from 12.5 percent of GDP to 5.75 percent, projects the CBO.) Defense cuts could verge on unilateral disarmament. States and localities would suffer, as the value of federal grants, including Medicaid, shriveled. The FBI, the National Institutes of Health and other federal agencies would be starved.
By contrast, the elderly would be mainly spared. Spending on them in 2030 would drop only slightly, estimates the CBO. Despite this, President Obama warns that Republicans “would end Medicare as we know it.” Liberal pundits say Republicans would “kill” Medicare. It is this cynical fear-mongering that poisons debate. One reason Democrats won’t change Social Security and Medicare is that defending them is so politically rewarding. This, as much as Republican tax intransigence, underlies the stalemate.
The cliché is true: There are no painless cures to budget deficits. But all cures are unnecessarily hard and harsh because we maintain a protected class excluded from any solution.
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