Why Obama is going to lose

Granted, the RCP average had George W. Bush at 42.7 percent at this point in 2004 and he went on to win. So why is 2012 different?

Here’s why: In 2004, the central issues facing the country were a net negative for Bush in July. By November, those issues had become a net positive for him, and Bush won.

It’s hard to see how the central issue facing the country in 2012 is going to become a net positive for Obama.