Let’s assume, then, that Romney is able to pull ahead of the president in the following states where the margin is closest. Starting with 191 (McCain victories plus Indiana), give Romney North Carolina, where he’s leading (15), Florida, which boasts the president’s narrowest polling lead in a state (29), Michigan, which is the next closest in the RCP Average (16), Virginia (13) and Iowa (6) — and Romney is back to 270. But subtract that single Nebraska vote, and they both get 269.

Given the current polling data, that may be the likeliest of the electoral tie combinations. Right now, if the concept of “tossup states” are rejected, President Obama beats Mitt Romney on the RCP “no toss up” map, 332 electoral votes to 206, with just Indiana and North Carolina flipping to the challenger after going for Obama in 2008.

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