An upside or downside miss of that magnitude could have significant consequences for the news media’s narrative of the presidential campaign. It seems as though we’re at something of an inflection point in terms of the prevailing sentiment about the state of the race.

If the economy is found to have added 150,000 to 200,000 jobs last month, you may begin to hear talk about how President Obama is on a winning streak. Nobody, I hope, will suggest that Mitt Romney faces insurmountable odds of winning the White House, but the notion that he is at least a moderate underdog may begin to sink in.

A downside miss, however, would mean that hardly any jobs were created in June. That would very probably shift the conversation away from the relatively favorable news stories, like the Supreme Court’s ruling on health care, that Mr. Obama has had over the past few weeks. The election might again come to be viewed as more of a tossup.