Why Romney won't repeal ObamaCare

If Romney were to win in November, the first matter he’d have to deal with would be the fallout from the so-called fiscal cliff of December 31st, the day when some five hundred billion dollars worth of tax increases and spending reductions take effect, which could put the economy into another recession (if it’s not already in recession by then). This moment would perhaps be Romney’s greatest chance at repeal. Because the fiscal-cliff negotiations will be an enormous fight over the size and scope of the federal government, every government policy will theoretically be open to debate—including, Romney might insist, repeal of the A.C.A. …

Assuming that Romney comes through this period of his transition and Presidency with a deal that settles the tax and spending issues brought about by the fiscal cliff (and the related debt-ceiling vote that will likely happen weeks later), he could then return to his domestic agenda, which, he declared today, includes repeal of the A.C.A. as the first priority. But he would immediately face a set of political circumstances similar to the ones that made health care such a difficult issue for Obama in 2009. …

Assuming that Romney comes to Washington without a sixty-vote majority in the Senate, the task of repeal will be nearly insurmountable. First of all, the Congressional Budget Office, which “scores” all legislation—and which so frustrated Obama in 2009 that he refused to mention its name in White House meetings, demanding instead that aides call it “banana”—would now be the A.C.A.’s best friend. The last time the C.B.O. weighed in on the matter, it reported that repeal of the A.C.A. would cost the government almost three hundred billion dollars. Republicans dispute that, but they’d still be under pressure to explain where they would come up with that money.