Poll of Supreme Court "insiders": They'll probably strike down the mandate

Oral arguments in March persuaded a group of attorneys and former clerks that the justices will kill the individual mandate, the requirement that nearly all Americans buy health insurance or pay a fine, according to the survey by Purple Insights.

“In March, our experts believed that likelihood (of an overturn) stood at 35%,” said a memo from Doug Usher of Purple Insights. “After hearing the oral arguments and the justices’ questioning, our experts now place that probability at 57%.”…

If the mandate is struck down, respondents are more likely to believe other parts of the law will go with it.