But as is so often in European politics, even this best-scenario outcome still has the potential to get messy. Three major challenges lie ahead for both Greece and Europe as a whole. The first—and most immediate—challenge is for New Democracy to be form a workable government. The party won just under 30% of the vote, and will have 129 seats in the 300-seat parliament. That means it will need to form a coalition, with the most likely partner being the centre-left PASOK party, which won 12% of the vote and about 33 seats…
Once a government is formed, the second challenge will be trying to forge an agreement on a modification of the rescue package itself. Merkel and other European leaders have repeatedly called on Greece to honor the commitments it has already made, ruling out a change in the terms. The country has agreed to four clear policy positions: “far-reaching structural reforms in the labor, product and service markets,” including a reduction in the minimum wage; massive cuts in public spending and a tax overhaul aimed at ending large-scale cheating; a recapitalization of Greek banks; and a big privatization program to sell of state assets.
While none of these terms is likely to be substantially altered, European officials acknowledge it’s in their interest to at least make a political gesture to the new Greek government by way of encouragement…
The third challenge is perhaps the biggest one of all: finding a more sustainable solution to Europe-wide indebtedness and economic decline. The problems in Europe go far beyond Greece. Euro-zone finance minister just last week had to step in with a $125 billion rescue package for Spanish banks after the Spanish government botched its handling of a savings and loans crisis. The ratings agency Moody’s cut Spain’s credit rating to one notch above “junk” status, and at one point, the nation’s borrowing costs rose as high as 7%. There have also been renewed jitters in Italy and Portugal, and it doesn’t help that there is a sudden bout of friction between Germany and France—the two key political forces in the euro zone.
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