In India, local agencies told ministers a bomb attack which badly injured the wife of the Israeli military attaché in New Delhi in February was the work of an Iranian “security entity”. Their conclusions have not previously been made public and Indian officials have made significant efforts to avoid blaming Tehran, an ally and oil supplier.
The governments of Georgia and Thailand, which both uncovered bomb plots on the day of the Delhi attack, have also not officially blamed Iran.
European intelligence officials told the Guardian they now found it difficult to judge Tehran’s “risk calculus”.
“Until recently it was possible to see why they were doing what they have been doing,” one intelligence official said. “Now it has become very unpredictable. It’s very hard to see the logic behind [the February bombings], other than perhaps demonstrate an ability to cause problems in the event of war or a desire for revenge of some kind.”