Is Gary Johnson the wild card in the election?

In order to meet their goals, the small and volunteer-laden Johnson operation intends to lean heavily on the legions of Ron Paul supporters scattered throughout the country, a following amassed during his most recent presidential runs. Stone says that through the power of social media, disappointed Paul devotees will discover that they don’t have to abandon their policy positions; instead, they can find them in Johnson, an anti-war, pro-legalized marijuana former Republican. Stone clarified that one area of difference between Paul and Johnson is abortion: Paul opposes abortion rights, Johnson supports them.

To make a splash and win votes along the way, Stone says Johnson plans to run to the right in some policy areas and pull from Romney, and run to the left in others. He thinks the Libertarian candidate can scare up votes in Oregon specifically on the marijuana issue, whereas in North Carolina he would emphasize his right flank. The team insists it’s not in the race to spoil the election for Romney or Obama, even though that possibility exists.

Some Public Policy Polling (D) surveys show Johnson getting a small chunk of support in several states. Because most of the polls are dated, however, his real effect is hard to measure. Still, an Arizona survey in late May showed him taking 9 percent of the vote.