Romney is running even in recent Florida polls, and less than five points behind in Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia — within striking distance. If he wins them all plus safe Republican states, he’ll be elected.
That’s without Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with 66 electoral votes in all, which could conceivably be within Romney’s reach.
Democrats hope to expand the field to Arizona, with eleven electoral votes, and Republicans hope to expand it to New Jersey, with 14. Those hopes may look dim now, but at this point in 2008 few expected Obama to carry North Carolina or Indiana.
The bottom line is that at this point Obama doesn’t have an Electoral College lock. Neither does Romney. The numbers tell us that this election is up for grabs.
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