Romney's path to 270 isn't necessarily narrow

Now, at the time the aforementioned articles were written, Obama was ahead by a little more than three points nationally. This would represent a 4-point swing toward Republicans, and our baseline would give the president a 303-235 win. Florida would flip into the GOP column. Montana would move out of the “close” category, and Colorado would move in. Romney would still have to thread an extremely narrow needle to get to 269 electoral votes under this scenario, but it would be possible. He would have to win all of the “close” states – a tremendous task.

But what about today? Recent polls have shown the race closing to a one-point Obama lead. Now Ohio joins the Republican coalition, and Romney is up to 253 electoral votes. North Carolina and Indiana are no longer close. And, critically, a number of states in the “big blue wall” are placed on the playing field as the margins in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, along with New Hampshire and Iowa, join the “less than five points” category. In other words, Romney now has multiple paths to victory (as does Obama).