Obama's getting too cocky about beating Romney

Here’s another thing I’ve been noticing quietly, which not enough people seem to be focused on. Obama’s fund-raising numbers aren’t really that strong. Sure, on the one hand, it’s an obscene amount of money, $53 million raised in March And it’s far more than Romney has raised. But Obama’s several million behind where he was in 2008, and is probably not on track to raise the $1 billion that some of his people used to brag about. Obama’s own Super-Pac got off to a rocky start. The conservative Super-Pacs, meanwhile, are going to be throwing tens of millions of dollars’ worth of ads on the air in late October and early November. Now I tend to believe that money, even in the form of scorching negative ads, stops making a difference after a certain saturation point has been hit. There is such a thing as overkill, even in politics. But we’ll certainly see a new testing of the boundaries this fall. We can’t discount the possibility, which is real, that anonymous millions might play a big role in deciding this race…

In addition to all this, the inevitable day will come, sometime in June would be my guess, or maybe even earlier, when the media will start in with the “Romney’s back!” stories. He’ll give a good speech somewhere, a poll will announce some results favorable to him, or best of all some Hollywood type will say something unpardonably vulgar about him, which will set the Mark Halperin caucus whopping with derision about how out of touch Obama and his supporters are, and surely this will expose them and rally regular Americans to Romney’s cause. The press won’t want a runaway race all summer, so it will manufacture a close contest even if Romney doesn’t have the wherewithal to provide one.

And there is a chance Romney will actually do something smart. He is not a stupid man. He might make a surprising and daring vice-presidential pick (not Sarah Palin surprising and daring, but actually surprising and daring). He might do something that suggests the presence in his body of a spine.

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