The polling firm Latino Decisions, which is the gold standard of Latino-American polling, recently put out a report on the impact of Latinos in these states. They found that for every eight points that Republicans lose among Latinos in states like Colorado and Nevada, the party needs to pick up another single point among non-Latino voters in order to not lose ground statewide.

For example, if Obama gets 69% of the Latino vote in Nevada (ceding to Romney just 31%), then Obama can still win the state by capturing only 47% of the non-Latino vote (ceding to Romney 53%). If Obama gets a little more than 63% of the Latino vote, then he needs to get 48% of the non-Latino vote.

There are many caveats to this formula, but it provides a helpful outline of the landscape. The difference between Democrats winning 80% of Latinos and winning 45% of Latinos in a state like Nevada corresponds to about three points in the non-Latino vote. In other words, we are talking about a field goal, not a touchdown. But in states like Nevada and Colorado, which have a history of hosting close presidential contests, that may be enough.