“There’s no possible way for him to be elected president without at some point distancing himself from Congress,” said Dan Schnur, who was communication director for John McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign. “He signed on to the Ryan Budget and he’s going to need to stick with it for a while, but at some point in late summer or early fall, the budget negotiations are going to take a turn that is going to force him to part ways with the House Republicans.”

The Republican congressional leaders “are deeply, deeply unpopular, and Mitt Romney has no reason why he should run as part of Team Washington, or as the captain of the Washington Red Team,” said Steve Schmidt, a former Bush aide who managed John McCain’s 2008 campaign. “He should run as someone who’s going to come to Washington and clean things up, which means having the appropriate distance between himself and the Republican majority in the House and the Republican minority in the Senate.”…

Romney may pick a fight with the Congressional leadership, or he may have a fight forced upon him. In particular, some new projections suggest that the next debt ceiling battle — which had been expected in 2013 — could come as soon as September, forcing the Republican candidate to pick a side. September could also see a budget battle, but Congressional leaders may also push that debate until after the election.

Many of those choices are out of Romney’s hands: Either Obama’s allies, or Romney’s own tepid Congressional supporters, could insist on the kind of dramatic showdown that has repeatedly paralyzed Capitol Hill during the Obama Administration. But House Republicans may also seek to smooth Romney’s path.