First: Millions of right-wingers who would have been more motivated to vote by their hatred of the health-care law still will be less likely to show up on Election Day. This will get picked up in Romney’s polls—two, three points—and he’ll have to do something to re-motivate these people, and that something might alienate swing voters.

Second, and more substantively: By the fall, I’m guessing, if the ACA is overturned, the media will be demanding of Romney that he explain how he’s going to make sure people with pre-existing conditions can get reliable coverage. He could not do that the other night to Jay Leno. In fact, while he obviously didn’t intend to, he ended up defending . . . the individual mandate! “You’ve got to get insurance when you’re well,” he said, “and if you get ill, then you’re going to be covered”—precisely the logic behind the mandate (which we all know he “secretly” accepts, which is why he supported it as Massachusetts governor).