If they rule against health-care reform, the justices might be doing Obama a favor. He never really won the public battle on the issue. So he could take the high ground — disagreeing with the decision but showing respect for the court and for the American people, and vowing to continue the fight for health care for more Americans.
Mitt Romney would also be in a bit of a pickle. As governor of Massachusetts, he was Mr. Mandate; his health-care overhaulthere requires everyone to buy insurance. Would he turn against his own program if the court ruled against such a mandate? Or would that plan stand because a single state enacted it, while the federal government lacked the power to create a national plan? If the Supreme Court overturns Obama’s individual mandate, the Massachusetts mandate could undercut Romney’s credibility on the issue.
In his reelection campaign, Obama could propose that states be incentivized to sign on to a plan like the one in Massachusetts, where most voters favor the plan. He could deal with the issue in the same way states are incentivized to require seat belts. Such a strategy would preserve some state choice and leave much of the financing to them as well. Effectively, Obama could still be for universal health care and yet neutralize the issue for the election.
Part of the problem with the health-care law is that controlling costs and improving quality took a back seat to broadening coverage. A redo would allow Obama to produce a new plan that covers these bases, costs less and has broader support. He should treat an adverse ruling as a political gift, an opportunity to move to the center on health care, more like where he was in 2008.
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