But since the presidential inauguration on Jan. 20, 2009, the stock market has risen at an annual rate of 16.4 percent, even after adjusting for inflation. That is better than all but four previous administrations…

In general, share prices seem to have had a better record as election forecasters. Nine previous administrations have produced double-digit percentage gains over the comparable period, and the incumbent party won in seven of the subsequent elections, the exceptions being Democratic defeats in 1952 and 2000. At the other end of the scale, only one incumbent, President Roosevelt running in 1940, was able to win despite substantial stock market losses.

President Obama may be able to take heart from the somewhat similar experience of President Wilson, who was able to claim credit for the recovery and pass off the blame for the recession as he won re-election in 1916. But the other two presidents with similar records of slow economic growth — Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush — each lost their re-election bids.