Of the 15 presidents who won two consecutive terms (or four consecutive terms, in the case of FDR), nearly all of them count as historical giants and successful, significant chief executives. The only two arguable exceptions would be Ulysses S. Grant (1869-77) and George W. Bush (2001-09), and prominent academics have recently led a major resurgence in Grant’s historical reputation while Bush admirers await a similar reevaluation for that undeservedly reviled war leader.

In considering the chances for Obama’s reelection, it’s obvious that he doesn’t count as either a sure loser with a thin or nonexistent list of accomplishments, nor does he qualify as an obvious winner with a Rushmore-ready profile and a résumé of immortal achievements. In other words, President Obama won’t experience the resounding rejection that doomed the reelection hopes of Franklin Pierce, Herbert Hoover, and Jimmy Carter, nor will he register the inspiring vote of confidence that gave Jackson, Lincoln, FDR, Ike, and Reagan back-to-back victories.

Despite the attempt at apotheosis by the glowing new, Tom Hanks-narrated documentary The Road We Have Traveled, Barack Obama can’t run as that sort of triumphant titan; nor need he hide as the feckless, dreary disgrace of conservative propaganda. He clearly occupies some middle ground among first-termers, suggesting a fierce, closely contested battle against his all-but-certain opponent, Mitt Romney.