Here’s what it boils down to:

Republicans already hate the law, and if it gets struck down, there’s nothing to unite against. Obama may pay a price from his political capital for enacting a law that is eventually declared unconstitutional, but all of a sudden, the bogeyman disappears, and the GOP loses one of its top rallying cries.

The Democratic base, meanwhile, would be incensed at the Supreme Court, which has generally tilted 5-to-4 in favor of conservatives on contentious issues, and could redouble its efforts to reelect Obama so that he could fill whatever Supreme Court vacancies may arise.

On the flip side, if the law is upheld, Republicans’ No. 1 priority — repealing the health care law — is still on the table, and Obama, while his law remains intact, still has to try and explain to a skeptical public why the law isn’t so bad. In other words, pretty much the status quo.