However, a much more recent poll, from just one month ago shows that most Iranians polled still approved of a civilian nuclear program, but by a significantly narrower margin. Only 57% of respondents say they supported the program, a decrease of 30%. And that’s not the only interesting number. In the 2010 Rand poll, no one refused to answer the question and only 2% claimed they didn’t know. In Gallup’s most recent poll, the number of people who refuse to answer or say they don’t know goes up to almost a quarter of those polled. Finally, the number of people who say they support the development of “nuclear power capabilities for military use” is still significant; 40% of those polled…

The nuclear program is still closely tied to national pride in Iran, but the decreasing support for it could present two possible opportunities for the West.

The first is to play the waiting game: maintain the status quo and wait for public opinion to keep dropping. It may eventually go so low that the regime either decides to drop the program on its own or, if nuclear enrichment becomes unpopular enough, abandons it to appease the increasingly angry Iranian public. However, this could also risk tipping opinion in favor of the regime. As Iran analyst Karim Sadjadpour put it, “Sanctions often accentuate people’s existing political disposition. For government critics, it’s another example of the regime’s disregard for their well-being … but for government supporters, the sanctions provide further fodder to resent Western imperialism.”

The second opportunity is to ‘befriend’ the Iranian public and drive a wedge between the people and their government.