What if Gingrich dropped out? It’s reasonable to assume that much of his support would go to Santorum, but not all of it.
My interpretation of what we’ve learned from exit polling so far is that Santorum’s voters tend to doubt Romney’s steadfastness on social issues, while Gingrich’s supporters tend to doubt that Romney is a true, small-government conservative. That’s an oversimplification, but I think it’s basically correct.
Gingrich voters who put less emphasis on social issues — or who doubt Santorum’s commitment to small-government principles — might well turn to Romney instead. Given the Romney campaign’s deep pockets, Santorum would face a blistering barrage of negative ads in every state. Legitimate questions about Santorum’s electability would be raised nonstop.
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