Poll analysis: No, evangelicals aren't voting against Romney because of his faith

Even more important for our present purposes, Evangelical primary voters are no more likely to rely on attitudes towards Mormons in formulating their 2012 choices than their non-Evangelical counterparts. Indeed, the figure below indicates that feelings about Mormons have nearly the exact same influence on Evangelicals’ votes for Romney as they have among the remainder of the primary electorate.

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Why, then, has Romney underperformed among this group throughout the primary season? The answer most likely resides in moral issues like abortion and gay marriage. For, unlike attitudes about Mormons, Evangelical Republicans are much more conservative on these issues than their fellow partisans. Moreover, and also unlike anti-Mormonism, Evangelicals are more likely to vote in the primaries based upon moral issues than other Republicans. The figure below, for instance, shows that moral conservatism—measured here by attitudes about abortion and gay marriage—significantly eroded Evangelical support for Romney between January and March, while having no influence whatsoever among non-Evangelicals.

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