But even if there is a path to Tampa that doesn’t involve gaining significantly more evangelical support, Romney will nevertheless need every vote he can get in the general election. Even a slight decrease in the evangelical turnout could be hugely problematic, says Bauer, who predicts 2012 will be a “base election” and notes that if even 1 to 3 percent of voters stay home on Election Day that could “throw one state or another in the wrong column.”

Vander Plaats raises a different concern: Evangelicals might vote, but not volunteer for the campaign. “There’s a big difference in having someone vote against Barack Obama versus voting enthusiastically for Mitt Romney,” he remarks. “Because if it’s an enthusiastic vote, they’ve done the door-knocking, the phone calls — [they’ve been] influencing their network.”

Other evangelical leaders disagree, arguing that evangelical voters will be energized by their determination to prevent a second Obama term. “Whatever concerns they may have about Mormonism are trumped by their heightening fears of what may lay in store in a second Obama administration,” Land says…

What Romney can do, say faith leaders, is try harder to woo evangelicals. “He could help himself a lot if he would get into a fight with the president or somebody on the Left over a values issue,” says Bauer. “He says the right thing when he’s asked about these things, but it’s almost always when he’s asked.”