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Democrats would need to capture 25 seats to take back the House from the Republicans who swept into power in the midterm elections on a wave of Tea Party anger at President Barack Obama. If that were to happen, it would mark the latest in rapid succession of historical political realignments in the House – including the Democratic triumphs of 2006 and 2008.
Most political analysts see Democrats gaining seats – probably between five and 10 – but falling short of recapturing the majority. But Mr Israel says he can envisage a 21-seat gain, putting Democrats “in range” of the target. “I would sign an affidavit that it’s going to be razor close,” he says…
The growing confidence in the Democratic party is partly a result of the improving fortunes of Mr Obama, whose approval ratings have risen in recent months on the back of a better economy and the unsettled Republican race.
Mr Israel says Americans are also experiencing a form of “buyer’s remorse” against Republicans, blaming them for the repeated impasses on fiscal policy, from the April standoff on a government shutdown, to the debt ceiling crisis in August, to the payroll tax cut extension fight in December.
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