If young people don’t turn out in lopsided numbers, or if Obama once again receives 95 percent of the black vote but the black share of the overall vote goes down, Obama’s in grave trouble.
And it’s hard to imagine many people will be more excited for Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008 — a point even Obama concedes on the stump. It’s not just the sour economy either. Americans who were exhausted with George W. Bush were open to Obama’s rhetorical grandiosity in 2008. Now they know the man, and while they may still like him, far fewer people love him, which may help explain why Democrats are raising less money in 2012 than they were at this time in 2008.
Consider Obama’s decision to endorse the very super PACs he not long ago denounced as a threat to democracy. GOP-aligned groups have been raising enormous sums. In January, a pro-Romney group called Restore Our Future raised $6.6 million. The pro-Newt Gingrich group Winning Our Future raised $11 million.
Over the same period, the pro-Obama Priorities USA raised $59,000.
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