Can the Taliban avoid fracturing over peace talks?

These “peace awareness” sessions (as the organizers call them) are the clearest evidence so far that the Taliban’s senior leadership is deadly serious about the nascent peace process. And yet the very fact that such assemblies are necessary shows what a serious risk it poses to the insurgency’s unity. “Many Taliban, particularly the fighters, are worried that they will lose at the negotiating table everything they have won in the field with their guns and sacrifices of blood,” says Zabihullah, a senior Taliban political operative whose information has proved reliable in the past. “They want to be satisfied that they will win the fruits of their struggle: a nation under Islamic law, a total foreign troop withdrawal, and all Taliban prisoners released.”

That’s a tall order. Even so, the intelligence officer believes the meetings have succeeded in getting the participants to give the negotiations a chance. He says hardline commanders seemed to buy the idea of pursuing the peace option, as long as the armed struggle continues to keep the pressure on the Americans and Kabul’s forces. “I think the commanders came away with a better awareness of our commitment to uphold Islamic teachings, and of what we are trying to accomplish by talking to the Americans,” says the intelligence officer…

It won’t be easy persuading so many peasant guerrillas, steeped as they are in ultra-orthodox Islamic teachings. Some fighters are already sensing they’re being sold out, and there have been defections in the past few weeks, as news of the talks with the Americans has spread among the rank-and-file combatants. The commanders will have to work fast before morale sinks any lower. They need to do more than raise their men’s spirits and convince them that the leadership will hold true to their ideals; they also have to get their fighters ready to retake the field when fighting season begins again. “It’s crucial that the commanders earn the fighters’ trust and support for the talks right now, convincing them that the resistance won’t be compromised,” the intelligence officer says. “We need them to return to the fight with renewed energy this spring.”