STARTING FROM THE BEGINNING, incumbent Eisenhower’s win in 1956, even with a small negative VEWB, was followed by V.P. Richard Nixon’s loss in 1960 with a much larger negative. Lyndon Johnson won re-election in ’64 with a positive VEWB, followed by V.P. Hubert Humphrey’s loss in 1968 despite an even larger positive. Incumbent Nixon won in ’72, with a positive index, while incumbent Gerald Ford lost in ’76, despite a small positive. Incumbent Jimmy Carter lost in ’80, with a huge negative, while incumbent Ronald Reagan won in ’84, with a flat VEWB.
V.P. George Bush won in ’88, with a positive index, but lost in ’92—by then his VEWB had gone negative—against a challenger who campaigned on the concept that “it’s the economy, stupid.” Incumbent Bill Clinton won in 1996, with a positive index. But V.P. Al Gore lost with a positive index (although he won the popular vote) to George W. Bush in 2000, who in turn was re-elected with a flat index in ’04.
Last November, Obama’s VEWB would have been the second-worst since 1956 (behind only Jimmy Carter’s in 1980).
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