The man who saw Jeremy Lin coming

In May 2010, an unsung numbers hobbyist named Ed Weiland wrote a long-term forecast of Jeremy Lin for the basketball website Hoops Analyst. At the time, Lin was a lightly regarded, semi-known point guard who had completed his final season at Harvard. But Weiland saw NBA material. He emphasized how well Lin played in three nonconference games against big schools: Connecticut, Boston College and Georgetown. He noted how Lin’s performance in two unsexy statistical categories—two-point field-goal percentage (a barometer of inside scoring ability) and RSB40 (rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes) compared favorably with college numbers put up by marquee NBA guards like Allen Iverson and Gary Payton. Weiland concluded that Lin had to improve on his passing and leadership at the point, but argued that if he did, “Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to start in the NBA and possibly star.”…

Weiland never expected Lin to go as “Linsane” as this. Entering Wednesday night’s Knicks-Kings game, Lin was averaging 27.2 points and 8.8 assists in five scintillating starts. He is on the current cover of Sports Illustrated, and was named the NBA’s Eastern Conference player of the week. Weiland believes Lin’s numbers will come down when Carmelo Anthony returns to the New York lineup, but not drastically.

“When this all flattens out, I’m guessing he’ll be scoring in the high teens, say 18 points, with 10 assists,” he said. “That’s an All-Star point guard, or at least borderline.”