Romney is virtually guaranteed to finish the primary season with a huge win. The Utah primary, held on June 26, will support him in a landslide. Three weeks before that final contest, there are five primaries on June 5, including New Jersey and California. These states’ moderate profiles and expensive media markets favor Romney. Gov. Chris Christie of the Garden State will surely spend some political capital to deliver for Romney. If the frontrunner is within 250 delegates of clinching the nomination at the end of May, the winner-take-all contests in California (172 delegates), New Jersey (50) and Utah (40) could put him over the top. One remaining wild card is Texas, which almost certainly will have to move its primary back from April 3 because of a dispute over redistricting. The Lone Star State might not vote until late June, perhaps making its primary and big slate of delegates irrelevant — or hugely decisive.
When the remaining playing field is surveyed in its entirety, it is possible to conclude that Romney could be in better shape to win the nomination than he looks right now. While he is bound to take more losses over the next few months, particularly in Southern or Border states, Romney can go a long way toward becoming the GOP’s standard-bearer within the next month by winning Michigan and Ohio. Both will be major hurdles and neither will be easy — but then, for Romney, what really has been this year?
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