Israel’s dream is that the United States will do the bombing for or in conjunction with it — one reason for the Israeli refusal to clarify its intentions. But, short of an outrageous Iranian provocation such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, that’s not going to happen before November.

In an election year, with U.S. intelligence convinced Iran is not yet building a bomb, Obama will not send oil prices soaring and the Muslim world into another bout of anti-American rage. A lot of his presidency has been precisely about extraction from war and easing of Islamic hostility…

Here’s the bottom line: an Israeli attack unites Iran in fury, locks in the Islamic Republic for a generation, cements the Syrian regime, radicalizes the Arab world at a moment of delicate transition, ignites Hezbollah on the Lebanese border, boosts Hamas, endangers U.S. troops in the region, sparks terrorism, propels oil skyward, triggers a possible regional war, offers a lifeline to Iran just as Europe is about to stop buying its oil, adds a Persian to the Arab vendetta against Israel, and may at best set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions a couple of years.