For starters, Santorum has next to no organization outside Iowa. He just made his first ad buy in New Hampshire, a state where he is unlikely to medal. In South Carolina, where his social conservative credentials should sell well, Santorum currently polls at 2.7%. And those are the states in which he at least has a campaign office. After those, he’s got nada. If you can name a major party nominee who came out of Iowa with even close to this meager a field operation in other states, please let me know.
What about Mike Huckabee, you say? His commanding victory in Iowa four years ago brought him momentum and donations. Everyone knew he wouldn’t win in New Hampshire, but the votes of social conservatives kept him in the race. Huckabee also lacked a solid campaign operation. He nearly fought McCain to a draw in South Carolina, but after taking second in that state’s primary, Huckabee’s almighty mo started to ebb and he fell to fourth in Florida, which effectively sealed his fate. With more money and a bigger organization, Huckabee might have been able to really contest McCain for the nomination. But Huckabee’s 2008 campaign looks like a well-funded behemoth compared to Santorum’s 2012 outfit. Though donations have likely picked up over the past week, as of September 30, the Santorum campaign had less than $200,000 on hand and was more than $71,000 in debt.
Santorum also lacks Huckabee’s kinder, gentler version of social conservatism. Huckabee loved to say that he was a conservative, but just not angry about it. Santorum, on the other hand, is one seriously pissed-off conservative. He can be personable and relaxed in the realm of retail politics. But in any other setting, his jaw is usually set as if expecting a blow, and his wide-eyed stare is intense, punctuated by infrequent, dramatic blinks.
Finally, Iowa is still very much in flux.
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