Don't be so sure that North Korea's military will accept Kim's son

By itself, the risk of massive cross-border refugee movements should have prompted intense U.S.-Chinese consultations about the inevitable succession crisis. Unfortunately, little appears to have been done, despite continuing, visible evidence of Kim Jong Il’s physical decline. Quite the contrary. Once again, in defiance of all logic and history, the Obama administration has been negotiating with North Korean diplomats, hoping to trade food aid for more empty promises to denuclearize.

One immediate concern is that China’s Peoples Liberation Army will decide to intervene, hoping to avoid massive refugee flows across the Yalu River into China and to stabilize whatever government exists in Pyongyang. Clearly, Washington and Beijing should be working together behind the scenes to prevent any military mishaps that might be sparked by instability in Pyongyang.

But there is a larger potential here. Washington should have been preparing for the opportunity Kim’s death presents, namely the long-desired prospect that we could peacefully reunite the two Koreas, our stated objective since their “temporary” 1945 partition. Beijing should see reunification as being in its best interests, eliminating the nuclear risk that has troubled Northeast Asia.